XYZ Viewer Poll: Will Turnbull as PM affect your vote?

Now that the dust has settled, it is a good time to take stock of where people are placed regarding the events of the last few days. The latest XYZ Viewer Poll asks the question:

“How will the sacking of Tony Abbott, and his replacement with Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister by the Liberal Party, affect your vote?”

We have taken in a range of opinion on the matter, on The XYZ site, the XYZ Facebook page, and on forums across Australia. Although we have not been exhaustive in summarising the breadth of opinion, there do appear to be several camps who will not be changing their vote:

1) Those who supported Tony Abbott, but who support the team first, and want to keep Labor, the Greens and the Unions out of government.

2) “Small l” Liberal Party voters who are pleased with the change of leadership, and the potential change in direction which it implies. They also appear to believe that it will improve the Coalition’s chances at the next election.

3) The “anti-Abbott brigade,” who, let’s face it, are “anti-LNP” (does anybody outside of coalition members and supporters actually refer to themselves as “LNP”? Seriously, it is like being called a “reactionary,”) and only liked Turnbull because he wasn’t Abbott.

The most interesting interaction on this front has been between the first two categories, as they continue to work out their differences, and refocus on defeating the common enemy.

The two groups who matter, in terms of affecting the outcome of the next election, are:

1) Conservative Abbott supporters who will not vote Liberal with Malcolm Turnbull at the helm, who they view as a socialist and a turncoat. They intend to vote for new parties emerging to the right of the Coalition.

2) Swing voters and people who are concerned about economic freedom and fiscal restraint, but were put off by what they saw as the conservatism of the Abbott government, but are inclined to vote for the Liberal Party, now that it has a milder frontman.

While this poll can go some way to measuring the size of these last two constituencies, it cannot measure the depth of feeling on either side, and whether it will follow through when push comes to shove next year.