A Liberal Party and Establishment Right talking point in recent months has been that One Nation is splitting the “conservative” vote, effectively keeping Labor in power.
Principled nationalists hold that destroying the Liberal Party is priority number one, and if suffering under Labor tyranny for another election cycle or two is necessary for a genuine Australian nationalist party to emerge, then so be it.
However, the smashing victory for One Nation in the formerly safe Labor seat of Secret Harbour demonstrates that the pendulum is shifting swiftly and decisively.
From The Noticer:
One Nation has claimed victory in the safe Labor seat of Secret Harbour in a Western Australian state by-election that is being widely seen as a referendum on mass immigration and Pauline Hanson’s popularity.
State leader Rod Caddies declared Luke Herdegen was “the new member for Secret Harbour” at about 9.30pm local time, with the One Nation candidate leading Labor’s Georgia Tree 54% to 46% on preferences.
An 8 point victory is yuge. Primary vote figures are telling:
Early results showed Mr Herdegen with a healthy lead over Ms Tree thanks to a swing of almost 28% to One Nation, and state Liberal leader Basil Zempilas conceded his party was out of the running with his candidate Ryan Robertson winning less than 18% of the primary vote despite a massive campaign….
Mr Herdegen won about 36% of the primary vote, followed by Ms Tree with 25%, and The Greens won about 8% of the primary vote to become the fourth most popular party. Legalise Cannabis won 4.2%, and Animal Justice won 2.2%.
A big question regarding the electoral viability of One Nation has been: Given the establishment firewall directing preferences away from One Nation, what proportion of the primary vote does it need to win an election?
36 per cent gives it a comfortable win. The firewall broke down, with the Liberal Party directing preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor. More to the point, the result indicates that a lot of voters of all persuasions would have made the personal decision to preference One Nation.
Federally, One Nation’s primary vote fell to 23% in the latest polling, below Labor and the Liberal Party, both of whom sit on 26%, so One Nation will need to gain more support to take government. Regardless, both major parties are haemorrhaging votes to One Nation. Pauline provides a typical civnat explanation:
“This is a clear message to Anthony Albanese,” she said.
“It’s cost of living, everything. People are worried about the future, if their kids can own a home, the cost of groceries has gone up.
“People are turning to One Nation hoping, and it’s all about hope. They want hope. We’re really out there winning seats.”
And as reported on their ABC:
“We’re not splitting the conservative vote. We’re taking on the political establishment.”
It is intriguing that Pauline avoids acknowledging the number one reason One Nation has surged – immigration. Time will tell if the most recent poll dip reflects the mixed messaging One Nation has signalled to voters regarding its immigration policy.
The key point is that given immigration is the number one issue for One Nation voters, it follows that the voters it is stripping off both Liberal and Labor are overwhelmingly White voters. To reiterate, One Nation is not simply drawing support from conservatives or people against the establishment, it is drawing support from White Australians who used to vote Labor.
This reinforces XYZ analysis that the Australian electorate is no longer voting according to ideology or political affiliation, it is voting primarily on race. The Liberal and Labor parties are competing with each other to bribe so-called “minority communities” to vote for them. This in turn is turning away White Australians in droves, who are voting for One Nation because Pauline warned in 1996 that Australia was in danger of being swamped by Asians, she was proven right, and she is still here.
Liberal and Labor have positioned themselves as the parties for “minorities” against White Australians, however such a policy will fail to maintain party cohesion for the same reason it is currently failing to maintain “social cohesion”. This means that in the short to medium term, the White constituency will be the largest constituency in the country as the Liberal and Labor votes fragment.
The final point I make is the most important. I am not making the case for One Nation, I am making the case for White Australians. One Nation is popular because it is currently perceived as representing the interests of White Australians.
Providing it is not outlawed, should One Nation win government but it fails to fulfil its mandate to end mass replacement immigration, White voters will promptly dessert it in favour of a genuine nationalist party.
And nobody will listen to civnats warning against splitting the right wing vote.
